PharmaPhorum has an excellent analysis on launch evolution across pharmerging markets, such as China, Brazil, Russia, and so forth. A few items of note:
1. The author projects that by 2012, Brazil and China will enter the top 10 largest markets, by sales (with India at #11 and Venezuela at #12). However, they include Germany (#4) and France (#5) in the tables. With the recent news that Germany will push for more aggressive price cuts, it’s possible that Germany and other EU5 markets will drop even lower in the table, resulting in more pharmerging countries moving into the top 10.
2. The launch uptake data by country is compelling:
Products launched in India, for example, tend to follow a shallow uptake curve that plateaus quite quickly. Here, faster genericization due to poor IP protection and a strong presence of local players has created a fragmented market where a high share is difficult to achieve. Conversely, in Brazil – where launches are often linked with US market entry – rates of uptake are more in line with those of the mature markets in terms of the higher share that products can expect to achieve within their given therapeutic area.
There are several critical conclusions drawn by the author, including the need to launch in pharmerging markets before launching in mature markets.
We would be interested in seeing data looking at these market size ranking adjusted for population and per-capita spending on health care. Regardless, it’s a fascinating piece well worth reading carefully.